Chinese walker

Nuclear advocates talk of a three-stage progression that leads ultimately to controlled fusion, the gold standard of nuclear technology due to its inexhaustibility. Undermining the development of the industry, however, are constraints – mainly natural and economic – which mean that China will not be able to choose the nuclear option.

Constraints

Crucially, deposits of uranium, which are needed to fuel reactors during phases one and two of the three-phase transformation, are only modest in China – sufficient only to produce a fraction of China`s energy needs over a 40-year period. Phase two fast neutron reactors, which use uranium sixty times more efficiently, improve on the returns currently achieved by thermal reactors, but overall power output would still fall 50% short of demand if China is to fully industrialise.

Cost, too, is a significant factor for planners to consider. Tomorrow`s fast neutron reactors will produce energy that is three to four times more expensive than thermally-produced current that is currently produced. Meanwhile, controlled fusion – the last of the three phases – will raise costs by a factor of ten and, according to the most optimistic of estimates, this type of reactor will not be commercially viable until 2050. Disposal costs, too, are often underestimated, and the technology for doing so often neglected.

Boundless energy

Supporters of renewable energy also plot a three-stage progression for the development of the industry – from hydroelectric power, to wind, and finally to solar – and China is already in the midst of stages one and two.

Dams alone already produce 22 times more energy than thermal reactors at half the cost and there is enormous capacity for further expansion.

Wind, too, offers significant, untapped potential and could, in theory, generate three times more power than fast neutron reactors at an increasingly low cost. Further savings are expected thanks to recent breakthroughs in the field of maglev (frictionless) technology, which allows turbines to be placed in areas where average wind speeds are low, extends the operational shelf-life of hardware and reduces the unit cost of power to consumers. (See table 1.) According to researchers at Guangzhou Zhongke Hengyuan Energy Science %26amp; Technology Co., Ltd, an energy company in southern China, maglev wind power generators also produce about 20% more power than traditional turbines.

Table 1: Projected cost of wind power (1981-2020)

X-axis: Year

Y-axis Cost / Euro cents / kWh

Greatest potential, however, lies in China`s vast endowment of deserts and plentiful sunshine in its northern regions, which could (based on the capabilities of today`s technology), produce 16700 gigawatts (GW) of solar power. That`s enough to meet any future energy demand.

Some serious suggestions

To achieve this, however, China needs to: develop hydroelectric power, with the aim of fully utilizing the 400 GW of commercially viable sources over the next 10 to 15 years; commercialise wind power, reducing costs to a level competitive with thermal power within 5 years and develop photovoltaic and solar concentrator technology, reducing costs to a level competitive with thermal power by 2015-2020.

In the longer term, serious consideration should also be given to a new vision for China`s desert regions, which could (with the right technology and infrastructure in place) conceivably house solar plants capable of producing 5,000 GW of power spread across an area of desert the size of the UK.

Table 2: Three-stage development of the nuclear and renewable industries – comparable output, cost, labour and technological requirements

On August 5, the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, laid the foundation stone for the vast Ilisu Dam project in southeastern Anatolia. In doing so, he revived one of the most bitterly contested dam projects in western Asia, which has drawn protests over the past few years not only from the local population but from ecologists, human-rights defenders and archaeologists all over the world.

The Ilisu Dam is to be built across the upper Tigris, which runs south from Turkey into Iraq and reaches the sea in the Persian Gulf. The region, watered by the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, once known as Mesopotamia, formed one of the most important centres of settlement and urban culture in early human history. Alterations to the flow of the Tigris will profoundly affect not only those living close to the dam but also the populations of Iraq, who — in the present chaos following the American and British invasion in 2003 — are in no position to make their objections felt. The dam is a key part of the South-East Anatolia Regional Development Project (GAP in its Turkish acronym). GAP is one of the biggest regional development projects in the world, involving 90 dams and 60 hydroelectric power plants on the Tigris, Euphrates and other rivers.

The population in the area of the dam is largely Kurdish. Armed conflict in the 1990s between the Turkish state and the Kurdistan Workers` Party (PKK) led, among other tragic results, to the displacement of up to three million people from their homes. Women have been at the heart of the movement, demanding to return to villages they were forced to leave by Turkish security forces. But many of these villages are now in the area of the proposed Ilisu dam reservoir.

Maggie Ronayne, an Irish archaeologist who knows the region well, has been a leading figure in the international protest movement against the dam. In 2001, the British government proposed to offer export credit guarantees to British companies in the dam-building consortium, and issued an Environmental Impact Assessment Report. With her colleague Willy Kitchen, Ronayne responded with a devastating critique of the report which demolished it point by point. The following year, the British construction firm Balfour-Beatty pulled out of the Ilisu project, and the consortium collapsed.

Now, however, the Turkish government has returned to the project. A new consortium has been formed, and a revised environmental impact assessment has been prepared. Maggie Ronayne is reassembling the international, scientific and scholarly opposition which helped to halt Ilisu in 2002, at least for a time.

– Neal Ascherson

***

All too often Western commentators have presented the environmental costs of China`s development as the final straw that will break the planet`s already burdened carrying capacity. Over the past year, however, a new theme has been emerging from the business and investment community, one that emphasizes the profound commercial opportunity that this crisis presents. As leading investment bank, CLSA, noted this May in a special report on sustainable energy, “if environmental legislation in Asia were a stock, it would be a raging Buy”. China lies at the heart of this burgeoning market for environmental goods and services, driven by the pressing need to respond to its twin %26lsquo;resource crunch` of getting access to sufficient quantities of clean energy and clean water.

Far-sighted investment analysts such as Stephen Roach at Morgan Stanley are seeing signs of a new %26lsquo;commodity lite` model of development in China, “in effect, retrofitting China`s commodity-guzzling production platform with more commodity-efficient technologies.” China`s 11th Five-Year Plan contains an explicit target of reducing the energy intensity of growth by 4% each year through to 2010 – a target that is eminently achievable by adopting good practice standards from across the globe. For example, a recent assessment from the World Bank and the UN Environment Programme concluded that China – along with Brazil and India – could reduce energy demand by a quarter.

Until recently, reports such as these would probably have gathered dust on bureaucrats` shelves. But the rapid rise in world energy costs, increasing import dependency for energy and the emergence of new carbon markets has generated real demand for clean energy options. Installed wind power grew by 65% in China last year, and is forecast to expand by an annualised rate of 44% by end-2010 (CLSA, Clean and Green, May 2006). Growth rates such as these are underpinned by falling costs of energy from wind generation and government incentives flowing from the new Renewable Energy law. The momentum is such that industry executives believe that China`s official target to increase wind capacity to 5 giga-watts (GW) by 2010 could be exceeded by as much as 100%. Leading international wind developers, such as Spain`s Acciona and Iberdrola, are now positioning themselves to take a slice of this attractive market.

Burgeoning oil prices are also providing an additional stimulus for an expansion in bio-fuel production. China is already the third largest bio-ethanol producer in the world, and has prioritised clean fuels as a priority for the %26lsquo;green` Olympics in 2008. One sign of the growing investment opportunities in this area was the listing of the China Biodiesel International group on London`s Alternative Investment Market (AIM) in June. Importantly, this company produces its fuel predominantly from waste, thereby avoiding some of the growing environmental concerns about the conservation and water consumption impacts of increased biofuel production.

On top of this, China has also become a centrepiece of the emerging global carbon market thanks to the UN`s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Through the CDM, international capital is being deployed to achieve reductions in carbon emissions in emerging markets which then count against the industrialised world`s domestic carbon targets. China is projected to account for more than 40% of expected emission reductions under the mechanism, thanks to its competitive business environment which means that carbon savings can be made at a fraction of the equivalent cost in the developed world. Projects that will cumulatively help to achieve this target include a landfill gas to electricity initiative in the southern city of Nanjing. In August 2006, the world`s largest CDM project worth over US$1 billion was agreed between the World Bank and two Chinese chemical companies. For James Cameron, founder of Climate Change Capital, a London-based carbon bank, “choosing to put money in China to reduce emissions is simply an efficient allocation of capital on a global scale.”

With an unprecedented drought affecting China this summer, the severity of the country`s water crisis cannot be underestimated. With less than a quarter of the world`s average per capita water availability, China currently squanders what it has, using five times as much water to produce each and every dollar of national income. Not surprisingly, water shortages are already reducing industrial output by an estimated US$ 25 billion each year, with a further US$ 19 billion lost in terms of agricultural production. But rising demand and declining supply – exacerbated by local pollution and global climate change – is prompting an unprecedented national investment programme, worth perhaps US$ 61 billion by 2010. Serving this market offers major opportunities for international engineering companies such as General Electric, which is deploying advanced membrane and desalination technologies as part of its ecomagination initiative. International investors are also showing increased interest both in China`s stock-market listed water utilities – such as Shanghai Municipal Raw Water, Guangdong Investment and Tianjin Capital – as well as technology providers, including Hyflux and Sinomem.

The scale of China`s %26lsquo;green` opportunity means that it is enticing %26lsquo;mainstream` as well as specialist SRI investors from across the globe. And in China itself, the Bank of China International Investment Managers (BOCIIM) launched its Sustainable Growth Equity Fund in May to tap into the potential. Much still needs to be done to ensure that China`s growth is compatible with sustainability. But the early signs of the commercial bonanza this represents are already with us.

The author: Nick Robins is head of sustainable and responsible investment (SRI) funds at Henderson Global Investors in London where he has a particular focus on the investment implications of climate change. Previously, Nick worked at the International Institute for Environment and Development (IEED), at the European Commission’s Environment Directorate in the run-up to the 1992 Earth Summit and as an adviser to a range of government bodies in the UK, as well as the OECD, UNEP and UNIDO.

Homepage photo by Doreamon

The world faces an enormous challenge to produce the energy we need without damaging the lives of our children and grandchildren. Capturing the carbon dioxide produced from combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas before it gets into the atmosphere and placing it instead in secure storage deep underground is a key to meeting our responsibilities. Welcome to the world of Carbon Capture and Storage, or CCS.

Carbon dioxide can be captured from all types of modern power plants, conventional steam boilers and integrated gasifier combined cycle plants that are planned for future construction. ‘Post-combustion’ systems wash carbon dioxide out of waste combustion gases before they go to the plant’s chimney with a continuously-recycled solvent. State-of-the-art designs are a significant improvement over the small capture units that have been used for half a century to produce carbon dioxide for carbonated drinks, dry ice, fire extinguishers and other industrial uses.

In gasification-based power plants with ‘pre-combustion’ capture the coal gas is reacted with steam to make hydrogen, which can be burnt in a gas turbine to raise electricity without producing carbon dioxide. New power plants of either type are expected to have similar costs and performance with capture. In the longer term other types of capture system may be tried out to see if they can give better performance. Perhaps the best know of these is oxyfuel combustion; pure oxygen is produced and used to burn the coal, giving nearly pure CO 2 with little additional processing. But there are also a lot of ways in which the current post-combustion and pre-combustion systems can be improved. So, as with all other new technologies, there are plenty of opportunities for industries to compete to produce better products and for users to take advantage of a competitive market with multiple suppliers.

There is a catch: capturing carbon dioxide costs money. With current designs about 25% extra fuel has to be burnt and additional equipment must be purchased. This adds between 30 and 40% to the cost of electricity. This may seem like a lot, but dividing the extra cost by the amount of carbon dioxide that is not emitted to atmosphere has been estimated to give ‘abatement costs’ of 25-30 %26euro; per tonne of CO2 (250-300 yuan or US$30-38), a price already reached last winter in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Although carbon prices are now lower, in the ETS and the international Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), it does show that financing CCS in China could be quite an effective way to offset emissions elsewhere in the world, especially as technology improves and capture costs go down. The key is reaching international agreement to pursue sustained and significant emission reductions.

Another way to finance CCS, at least at first, is through ‘enhanced oil recovery’ (EOR). Carbon dioxide, compressed to a liquid, can be placed underground in old oil and gas wells. In oil wells, the carbon dioxide can help to wash out oil that is stuck in the pores of the rock and cannot be released by other means. Current prices in the USA for carbon dioxide for EOR are around $20/tonne CO 2. Petrochina and CNOOC are currently examining similar EOR schemes in China. But, while old oil and gas reservoirs offer proven leak-tight storage and EOR can give an extra source of revenue, most of the potential storage capacity for carbon dioxide in China (and globally) is in deep layers of porous rock a kilometre or more underground that contain only salty water, known as saline aquifers. One of these, under the North Sea, has already been used successfully to store a million tonnes of CO 2 a year from the Norwegian Sleipner gas platform, and requires only a single injection pipe.

While we are waiting for the necessary political progress on climate change mitigation to make CCS a marketable service, Western governments have offered to work with China to find out how much carbon dioxide can be stored underground in China and where the best storage sites might be and also to build the first CO 2 capture plants in China. Preliminary results from an Australian storage capacity project are shown in Figure 1; this work will be continuing with a team of Chinese and international geologists. While it held the EU Presidency in 2005 the UK set up the UK-EU-China Near-Zero Emissions Coal (NZEC) project, which is planned to lead to a jointly-designed and constructed power plant with carbon capture and storage starting operation by 2014. There are also other CCS-related research and capacity-building projects with the EU and, under bilateral agreements, with individual countries and the number of these is set to increase significantly.

Figure 1: Large sources of carbon dioxide in China and regions for prospective deep geological storage in China

(Source: Newlands, I.K., Langford, R., 2005. CO2 Storage Prospectivity of Selected Sedimentary Basins in the Region of China and South East Asia, Geoscience Australia, Record 2005/13. 223pp.)

China can also follow Western developments by seeing that new power plants are built to be ‘capture-ready’. This means that a few simple and inexpensive changes (principally space in the right places and access to carbon dioxide storage sites) are included at the design stage so that capture equipment can be added without prohibitive costs in the future. Utility companies building power plants in Europe and the USA are already doing this in their domestic markets to make sure they can use CCS to avoid large cost penalties for CO 2 emissions in the future.

Another energy-related development that prepares for CCS is introducing new ways to use ‘decarbonised’ energy, electricity and hydrogen. Even when the carbon dioxide produced in the production process is captured, making synthetic gasoline or diesel fuel from coal still results in half of the coal carbon being emitted to atmosphere. In contrast, using electricity made from coal with CCS in an electric vehicle or a new plug-in hybrid vehicle or using hydrogen made from coal, releases only about 10% of the carbon in the coal. Greater use of decarbonised energy reduces demand for expensive oil and natural gas in the short term and it can be produced from a wide range of non-fossil energy sources (nuclear, renewables, geothermal) as well as from fossil fuels with CCS. This allows the same motor vehicle technology to be sold into a wide range of markets and to be used unchanged while new energy technologies, like CCS, are introduced to tackle climate change.

In some respects the challenge of capturing billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide and pumping it deep underground sounds impossibly large. But this is because the world`s energy sector is itself so big. At the level of the power plant all that is required are some additional items of equipment: large but much less complex and costly than the existing steam or gas turbine generation machinery. Carbon dioxide capture and storage can similarly become a standard part of fossil fuel utilization – provided we act with urgency to use the irreplaceable opportunity that we have now to build up experience on CCS and to make all new power plants capture-ready, before growing awareness of climate change mandates widespread deployment.

The author: Dr Jon Gibbins is at the Energy Technology for Sustainable Development Group, Mechanical Engineering Department, Imperial College London. He is Principal Investigator for the UK Carbon Capture and Storage Consortium.

Homepage photo by Bret Arnett

In June 2006, the Chinese Construction Minister decreed that all Chinese cities had to re-instate the bike lanes that had been removed over the last few years to make way for the car. All civil servants were told that they must either cycle, or take public transport to get to work. The Minister was, it seems, determined that China should regain its global fame as “the Kingdom of Bicycles”.

He will have quite a struggle on his hands with some of China’s increasingly powerful city mayors, for whom the car has become a far more fitting symbol of economic and political success than the lowly bike. Every day in Beijing, for instance, more than 1,000 new cars are rolled out on its already highly congested streets.

That is just one of a seemingly limitless flow of eye-watering statistics about China today. The sheer size of the country continues to astound the rest of the world. And if your passion in life is sustainable economic development, rather than simply the environment, then what’s going on in China is quite simply the most important unfolding story anywhere in the world.

If 10% of the 60 million people who live in the UK choose to reduce their energy consumption by 1%, it hardly registers as a blip on the world scale. But when 10% of the 1.3 billion people who live in China take advantage of its surging prosperity to increase their own energy consumption by 1% per annum, then the world had better take notice. Such decisions affect those of us who live in Britain and elsewhere as much as our fellow world citizens in China. In an interconnected and interdependent world, China’s emissions are everybody’s emissions.

Chinese politicians talk with justifiable pride of their enormous achievement in enabling more than 250 million people to escape grinding rural poverty, and to find jobs in the country’s burgeoning economy. Living standards have soared; and average life expectancy increased from just 35 years when the communists came to power in 1949, to 72 years in 2004.

These social gains have been driven primarily by the economic boom – with average growth of around 10% over the last 15 years. But that has caused environmental damage on such a scale that the entire growth model for China is now imperilled. According to a report in Nature in 2005: “The losses from pollution and ecological damage [in China] range from 7% to 20% of GDP every year in the past two decades”. The impact on human health has been particularly severe. About 300,000 deaths a year are attributed to air quality problems. Sixteen of the world’s 20 most polluted cities are in China, and levels of cancer in such areas are amongst the worst in the world.

Helios, to the ancient Greeks, was the personification of the sun. According to mythology, he guided his horse-drawn chariot across the sky each day. In one tale associated with Helios, his son Phaeton once prevailed upon his father to let him make the daily crossing. But the boy lost control of the chariot, veering too high and freezing the earth, then too low, drying and scorching the planet. The madness ended only when an angry Zeus – the supreme god, the god of the sky – hurled a lightning bolt that sent Phaeton plummeting from the heavens. Order was restored to the earth.

In the 21st century, radical changes in climate are again wreaking havoc for we mortals. Ice caps and glaciers are melting, deserts are expanding and drought is increasingly common. The world is getting warmer, a phenomenon largely attributed to rising levels of greenhouse gases (primarily carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere. This time, humans alone control the reins; they alone must find solutions to address the challenges ahead.

Out along Helios Road, in London`s outer-southwest borough of Sutton, sits one example of the way forward: BedZED, Britain`s first and largest carbon-neutral eco-community. Completed in 2002, BedZED (the Beddington Zero Energy Development) has numerous lessons in sustainable living — about holding the environmental line without reducing the quality of life — to impart. They are lessons learned from what BedZED did right, and what went wrong.

“We don`t claim it`s a perfect project,” says architect Bill Dunster. “There`s no doubt it can be done better.” Dunster is now applying the lessons of BedZED — built for the U.K.`s Peabody Trust housing association and the BioRegional Development Group – both at home and in China, where he has two projects under way. “China is the frontline against climate change,” he says. “We see it as the most important thing to get right.”

BedZED, built on a brownfield (wasteland) site 20 minutes by train from central London, today features 99 homes – a mixture of flats and townhouses — and 1,405 square meters of workspace occupied by over 200 residents and 60 workers. The development is highly energy-efficient and built with sustainable construction materials: natural, recycled or reclaimed, and sourced within a 35-mile radius of the site wherever possible. Close to public transportation, BedZED also hosts London`s oldest car-sharing club as well as solar-driven power points for recharging electric vehicles.

Its buildings are topped with colourful, wind-driven ventilation cowls that swivel in the breeze, ushering in fresh air while funnelling out the stale. Birds perch atop them, occasionally descending to find insects in the rooftop greenery. Solar photovoltaic panels absorb the sun`s rays (even on cloudy days), contributing to the overall power mix.

All BedZED`s flats face south to maximize the sun`s heat and light, and are heavily insulated to retain warmth in winter and coolness in summer. Residents have small conservatories and private gardens, and their homes` interiors are fitted with low-energy lighting and appliances, along with water-saving devices in the kitchens and bathrooms. BedZED statistics show that water-efficient appliances have cut the development`s mains water use (the public supply) to 91 liters per person per day, compared with a UK average of 150 liters.

While BedZED was designed so that all its energy is generated renewably from wind, sun and biomass, there have been persistent problems with the biomass aspect. The development`s combined heat and power (CHP) plant has proved to be technologically troublesome. Fed by wood chips from tree-trimming waste, the CHP plant was meant to produce electricity for BedZED while harnessing the heat by-product – which is lost in conventional electricity generation – for such uses as providing hot water through super-insulated pipes. (Wood is a carbon-neutral fuel, because the carbon dioxide released through burning it is equal to that absorbed by the tree as it grew.) The persistent technical problems, however, have meant greater reliance on domestic hot-water tanks, which double as radiators.

As a result, BedZED`s renewable energy supply has fluctuated between meeting 80% of the site`s needs in 2003 and 11% more recently. Like other homes in London, BedZED then relies on the national power grid. The same holds true for water: in periods of scant rainfall – like the past summer – there was little for BedZED to store and reuse for toilet flushing, so the site had to fall back on additional mains water, the public supply.

Another key technology, the “living machine”, has also been out of action. The ambitious sewage water treatment plant involved employing reed beds to filter domestic waste water for reuse in toilet flushing and gardening. It has proved to be uneconomical, with high operating and maintenance costs. In better days, though, the treatment plant and the rainwater harvesting saved another 15 liters of mains water per person per day.

“The combined heat and power plant has been very problematic,” Dunster acknowledges. “And that`s a big lesson learned. The higher the technology, the quicker it breaks and the quicker it becomes useless. The higher the maintenance, the more uneconomic it is to run. So, luckily — seven years later — there is a replacement coming for that, which will be reliable and need less maintenance. Technology does move on.”

“The %26lsquo;living machine` has worked but not been maintained,” he adds, “and has been difficult to be adopted by the water authorities, who have been reluctant to engage in micro-treatment of water on site — as the electric utilities have been reluctant to engage in electric and heat generation on site.”

“But the [energy] load-reduction exercises have basically worked,” says Dunster. “The buildings don`t need much heat. The workspaces are now very popular. In fact there`s a shortage of space.” While BedZED actively encourages telecommuting and such other “green lifestyle” behaviour as recycling, car-pooling and using a local organic-food delivery service, residents are not compelled to join in.

Some representatives of BioRegional — WWF`s partner in promoting “one planet living”, or the sustainable and globally equitable use of the planet`s resources — are disappointed that residents` take-up of green opportunities is not greater. But Dunster says he is not worried. “You can set up these options, but you can`t make people use them. All of these things can suddenly ramp up overnight, and you haven`t got to change anything here at all. It`s all there waiting for you.”

He adds: “I think our job — as people who are paid to think about these problems and to almost plot a power-down route as the world copes with peak oil and peak nuclear — is coming up with a way of ameliorating the %26lsquo;cold turkey` that you get after addiction to fossil fuel, and getting down to a society, or planning a society, that could work if people want it to.

“So you can then argue: %26lsquo;Is it the wrong scale?` Have we got all these technologies on too small a scale? Should it be a huge development — 2,000 homes? That`s one argument. The other argument, which I personally favour, is that it should go down a scale. We are now embracing certain domestic and building-scale microgeneration solutions.”

Microgeneration is, in Dunster`s thinking, revolutionary – and where increasingly urban China enters the picture. “The key is reducing the cost — and that can only be achieved by collaborating with people like the Chinese and helping them get the economies of scale in their industries so that the costs come down, so that we can adopt these concepts in Europe as well. %26hellip; So it`s a double carbon-save, a double carbon-win.”

“We`re trying very hard to get our supply chain, all our components made, in China now,” he says. “The Chinese can`t afford to import any [energy microgeneration] products at all. %26hellip; The Chinese market is very cost-conscious. All these ideas rely on keeping things simple and reducing the costs. So we`ve got to be, all the time, designing with economies of manufacturing in mind.”

“In our company now, we`re no longer [only] architects,” he adds. “We design our own low-energy components, and we try to help all the way through the process, rather than just saying, %26lsquo;I`ve designed this — go and make it.` ” Dunster`s office, which now conducts about a third of its work in China, is currently working on solar-powered air conditioning and dehumidification specifically for the Chinese market.

“But the barriers in both Europe and China are always the same,” he finds. “You can`t afford to do something different because nobody else is doing it. So, all the time, you`re building prototypes which are too expensive. It`s a vicious circle.”

To tackle the problem, Dunster says, he found “very good suppliers” in China for the two projects he`s currently planning: a BedZED-sized low-rise development on the outskirts of Beijing and a high-density project in Changsha, in south-central China`s subtropical Hunan province. He has one building under way in the Changsha project, in the suburban district of Kaifu, encompassing show flats, retail outlets, a hotel, a swimming pool and other sports facilities.

It is, Dunster says, “a prototype for a new kind of urban block, replacing tower blocks and Wal-Marts, which is what they do now” in China. Covered with undulating parkland, the site is “all mixed up – work, retail and community spaces mixed with houses.” He adds: “What`s important is that air blows through the east- and west-facing [rather than south-facing] homes. They have a cooling problem, not a heating one.” Because the Changsha site calls for ventilation, fresh air and dehumidification, passive, horizontal wind cowls are incorporated in the design.

Dunster`s other Chinese project is a Zero (fossil) Energy Farm (ZEF), about 30 miles from Beijing, a new community beyond the Chinese capital`s last ring road and surrounded by fields. In the early planning stages, it is designed for microgeneration, with solar electricity, a wind turbine and a reed bed for water-filtering on top of a community building. The development is to include varying sizes of homes, a fishing lake, a farm shop supported by local agriculture, a caf%26eacute;, work space and underground parking in the high-density part of the site. A show house is nearly complete. “We think this is significantly more advanced than the stuff that`s being built in the UK,” he says.

“All of the microgeneration technology is allowing decentralised energy production and reimpowering ordinary people,” Dunster points out. “We think this is the future, because there is a direct relationship between having your own set of solar panels, your own micro-wind turbine, and actually being aware of your carbon footprint and energy use. The feedback is very direct.”

With large-scale public projects, such as nuclear power plants (which he opposes) or wind farms, “it`s too remote. We believe it`s ultimately self-defeating. There is a place for what we call %26lsquo;green grid`. But there is — in no way, shape or form — enough renewable generating opportunity to ever meet current energy demand from renewables – ever, ever, ever. You have to get a 70% to 80% load-reduction first — through energy efficiency and microgeneration — and then the green grid can work.”

Through his network in China, Dunster will be bringing back to the UK solar thermal collector panels and combination solar thermal and wood pellet boilers, which he says will be on the British market for about %26pound;5,000. “That gives you zero-carbon heating.” He aims, too, to battle the notion that green construction is prohibitively expensive (and that shipping equipment from China is any more carbon-intensive than, say, moving parts by large truck from Spain). With the economies of scale he is pursuing, and a “minimal” mark-up for administration and shipping, Dunster says, “ordinary people will be able to get most of this microgeneration technology”.

There is a large market for eco-friendly dwellings, he says, adding that some 2,000 people are waiting for one of his homes, but only about 20 are built each year. “Nuclear doesn`t work. We`re running out of fossil fuel,” Dunster argues. “Who has a better idea? We have the answers, but near 0% government support.”

“Old excuses won`t work,” says Dunster. “It`s down to a professional, consistent, determined approach. We`d be sorted now if planning had been done.” In Britain, he adds, meeting a goal of 80% carbon-reduction by 2050 is possible, with no extractive technology (such as oil drilling) or nuclear power, so long as there is a concentration each year on increased energy efficiency. That means, annually, 60% more solar hot water, 50% more solar electricity, 25% more micro-wind turbine power and 100% more biomass heating.

“When we built BedZED,” Dunster reflects, “we didn`t see climate change coming so soon. If we had, we would have passive cooling, more shading, solar thermal collectors, micro-wind turbines. No CHP, but a wood-chip boiler instead. And we`d try and get people, the residents, to be fully engaged in the design process. That would sort out the hostility between the uber-greens and the people who just want to get on with it.”

Like Dunster, China, too, wants – and needs — to just get on with it.

Maryann Bird is a London-based freelance journalist with a special interest in environmental and human-rights issues. A writer and editor, she was previously a staff member at Time magazine (Europe), The Independent, the International Herald Tribune and The New York Times.

China has long enjoyed good relations with the southern African state of Angola, during the Cold War the two regimes shared ideological sympathies. But the relationship has taken on a new closeness in recent years, as China`s economy has expanded and Beijing has encouraged its companies to scour the world for natural resources. From being a blip on China`s strategic map, Angola is now central to China`s strategic plans – a country to be flattered and indulged through a mix of military support, aid, and cheap loans.

Earlier this year, Angola – Africa`s second largest oil producer – became China`s number one source of crude oil, overtaking Iran, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. In May, Sinopec, one of China`s three leading oil companies, struck a US$2.2 billion deal with Sonangol, Angola’s state-owned oil company, to develop two new blocks with estimated reserves of 4.5 billion barrels, adding to its previous concessions. By 2008, Angola will supply the People`s Republic with up to two million barrels a day. And, by all accounts, the plan is for more.

Accompanying its investments in oil, China has extended a series of low-interest loans, pledged investments in Angola`s telecoms sector, railways, and military communications network. Chinese companies have also been active in various infrastructure projects, including roads, bridges, schools, shopping centers, office buildings and low-cost housing. Most dramatically, Chinese firms are heavily involved in building a new city south of Luanda, which the government hopes will house up to four million people and help to alleviate extreme overcrowding in the capital.

China`s largesse – while beneficial to Angola`s post-war reconstruction – has not come without criticism. A US$2 billion loan, signed with China`s export credit agency in 2004, was especially controversial, with NGOs and others complaining that China had helped Angola to renege a putative deal with the IMF, which came with conditions to cut corruption and improve transparency surrounding the country`s oil revenues. Global Witness, a British NGO, has lambasted China for eschewing governance in the negotiation of such financing, while Western oil companies have said Chinese companies have effectively hampered efforts to introduce anti-corruption schemes like the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative – which Angola has signed but has yet to implement. At the same time, development experts have questioned whether China`s money, while helping to build hospitals, will actually start the country on the road to self-sufficiency. A feature of much of China`s investment in Africa, they say, is the use of Chinese, rather than local workers.

China`s involvement in Angola is hardly unique. Over the past few years, Beijing has been extending soft credit to numerous countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia, as part of its push to secure energy supplies and develop its companies` interests overseas. The “big three” of Chinese energy companies – CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC – have been buying up dozens of oil and gas blocks, and as in Angola, Chinese construction firms have been busy building major infrastructure all over Africa and Latin America. China`s aim, observers say, isn`t necessarily profits – at least in the short term – but rather to build influence in the developing world, undercutting western governments and companies.

This model of development, which forgoes any “interference” in the internal affairs of foreign states, is of increasing concern to NGOs, international financial institutions, and western companies trying to improve transparency, human rights, and develop “capacity” in poor countries. The worry is that Beijing will let nothing get in the way of its “go global” policy, turning a blind eye to the activities of its companies overseas, even as it tightens corporate responsibility standards at home (as it has done on issues of corruption, worker safety and the environment). In turn, there are those who fear what this will mean for western companies trying to compete with their Chinese counterparts; whether – backed by cheap loans, diplomatic pressure, and military assistance – China`s companies will lower the bar for all comers.

On the other hand, many African leaders point out that, far from corrupting the development process, China is presenting Africa with opportunities. They argue that it was precisely the meddling of western powers – such France, Portugal and Britain – that contributed to the extreme poverty on the continent. By contrast, China`s approach, focusing less on governance and more on getting things done, stands more chance of success than endless foreign interference.

China and corporate responsibility

Nonetheless, the activities of Chinese companies in Africa have raised eyebrows. Experts say that, compared to western companies, Chinese multinationals are only beginning to understand corporate responsibility. Some believe greater engagement with institutions like the World Bank, the need for western capital (including stock-market filing requirements), as well as the reputational benefits of corporate responsibility, will all encourage Chinese companies to begin to take the area more seriously – at least at home. More worry surrounds the companies` behaviour abroad. On transparency, China has yet to sign up to international anti-bribery initiatives like the OECD`s anti-bribery convention, and the EITI. Says Peter Rooke, director of the Asia department at Transparency International: “As Chinese companies expand their investment into other countries, there is a need for better international standards.”

The weaknesses of Chinese corporate-responsibility standards are most evident in developing world – where the majority of Chinese investment is now focused – and are frequently oil-related. Most egregious is the relationship with the regime in Sudan – where China has ignored US sanctions, the genocide in Darfur, and a full-scale divestment campaign from NGOs. Burma and Zimbabwe have also benefited from numerous Chinese loans.

NGOs and other observers are also very concerned about China`s international environmental impact. A report from the International Rivers Network and Friends of the Earth last year criticised Exim Bank, China`s export credit agency, for funding projects such as the Yeywa Dam in Burma, Merowe Dam in Sudan, and the Nam Mang 3 Dam in Laos. It says Exim has failed to sign up to the environment guidelines adopted by many export-credit agencies from OECD countries, including Korea and Turkey. These guidelines, known as the “common approaches”, compel export-credit agencies to subject projects to environmental review, as well as relevant host country and international standards. In late 2004, Exim adopted environmental guidelines of its own; but NGOs point out that they are not available to the public, or to commercial banks that arrange funding on Exim`s behalf. The report notes that Exim also has no apparent policy on human rights, despite loaning to countries with poor human-rights records, such as Burma and Sudan. Meanwhile, concerns have been raised over the environmental impact of various Chinese-run mining operations in Africa, including copper mines in Zambia and Congo, and titanium sands projects in ecologically sensitive parts of Mozambique, Kenya, Tanzania, and Madagascar. Chinese miners have also come under fire in South Africa.

Moreover, China is a major importer of illegal timber from forests in places like Burma, Indonesia, Cameroon, Congo, and Equatorial Guinea. Last year, Global Witness said that China`s imported timber – most of it illegal – was worth some US$350 million annually. Up to 70% of that ended up being re-exported abroad as furniture, plywood and other processed products, according to a report this year by Centre for International Forestry Research.

Elizabeth Economy, director for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington and author of The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China’s Future, says there are two ways of understanding China`s impact on the global environment. One, is what she calls the “unintended consequences” of China`s rapid economic advance: its impact, for example, on ozone depletion and climate change, and its pollution of the Pacific Ocean.

The second phenomenon, she says, is more recent and concerns its multinationals working abroad. “If you can accept that Chinese companies engaged domestically are some of the most egregious in the world in terms of labour and safety standards and environmental standards, then there is very little reason to anticipate that what they are doing abroad is any better,” she says.

There are signs, however, that Chinese companies and the Chinese government are beginning to take concerns over corporate responsibility more seriously. For example, following Global Witness`s report on Burmese logging, the Yunnan Provincial Government closed its border to illegal imports from that country. In Peru, where CNPC`s subsidiary SAPET has come under fire for impinging on the habitats of indigenous peoples in the Amazon, the company recently requested that the government remove an affected area from their oil concession. Such examples may be the first evidence that Chinese companies understand that to operate over the long-term they need to adjust to the concerns of local people.

Economy says some government agencies is beginning to wake up to the potential for difficulties. She says: “I think there is some concern within the Foreign Affairs ministry about how to keep track of China`s growing presence abroad. I think the idea of corporate responsibility among Chinese companies is just beginning to take hold. But it`s going to take some time, because the companies haven`t felt these concerns domestically.”

Ben Schiller is a freelance journalist based in London. He specialises in US politics, eastern Europe and corporate responsibility issues.

Addressing the challenge of stabilising greenhouse gas (GHG) stocks in the earth`s atmosphere, the Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change argues that such stablisation cannot be achieved without global emissions-reduction action – and the earlier the action is taken, the easier it will be. However, undertaking stabilisation is a delicate and complicated process. The report notes that it is “difficult to secure emission cuts faster than about 1% per year, except in instances of [economic] recession. Even when countries have adopted significant emission-saving measures, national emissions often rose over the same period.”

“China embarked on a series of measures to reduce deforestation and increase reforestation from the 1980s, with the aim of restoring forests and the environmental benefits they entail,” Stern says. “Between 1990 and 2000, forested land increased by 18 million hectares, from 16% to 18% of total land area. Despite cuts in land use emissions of 29% per year between 1990 and 2000, total GHG emissions rose by 2.2% over the same period.”

Noting that “no single technology or process will deliver the emission reductions needed to keep climate change within the targeted limits,” the review acknowledges the attention being paid to the potential of carbon capture and storage (CCS). The CCS process involves removing and storing carbon emissions from the exhaust gases of power stations and other large emitters. CCS technologies are expected to play a crucial role in the future, and could reconcile the continued use of fossil fuels with the need for drastic reductions in emissions.

CCS could, if shown to be effective, help cut emissions from the numerous new coal-fired power stations that China plans for the coming decades — and in which power companies have been investing rapidly. Stern also noted that some countries can reduce emissions more cheaply than others – for example, where big capital investments are being made. “Countries such as India and China are expected to increase their capital infrastructure substantially over coming decades,” the report said, “with China along accounting for around 15% of total global energy investment. If they use low-emission technologies, emission savings can be %26lsquo;locked in` for the lifetime of the asset. It is much cheaper to build a new piece of capital equipment using low-emission technology than to retro-fit dirty capital stock.”

On structural change and competitiveness, Stern also found that “countries most reliant on energy-intensive goods and services may be hardest hit” by costs. “Primary energy consumption as a percent of GDP is generally three or four times higher in the developing world %26hellip; though in rapidly growing sectors and countries such as China and India, primary energy consumption per unit [of] output has fallen sharply as new efficient infrastructure is installed.”

Referring to the economics of emissions stabilisation, Stern noted the link between climate-change policies and energy policy. While the expansion of renewable-power sources can reduce the exposure of economies to fossil-fuel price fluctuations, as well as reducing import dependence, the report said, coal was a different matter.

Says Stern: “Coal is much more carbon intensive than other fossil fuels: coal combustion emits almost twice as much carbon dioxide per unit of energy as does the combustion of natural gas (the amount from crude oil combustion falls between coal and natural gas). Many major energy-using countries have abundant domestic coal supplies, and hence see coal as having an important role in enhancing energy security. China, in particular, is already the world`s largest coal producer; its consumption of coal is likely to double over the 20 years between 2000 and 2020.”

As well as using coal directly, China and other producing countries are investing in “coal-to-liquids technology, which would allow them to reduce their dependence on imported oil” and use domestic coal to meet some transport-fuel demands. However, the full lifecycle emissions of such road transport use have been estimated as almost double those from using crude oil. Extensive CCS deployment, the report emphasises, “can reconcile the use of coal with the emissions reductions necessary for stabilising greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.”

Stern also notes that climate-change policies can reduce local air pollution, with important health and quality-of-life benefits for developing countries. “[O]nly malnutrition, unsafe sex and lack of clean water and adequate sanitation are greater health threats than indoor air pollution” in such countries. In China, says Stern, a recent study showed that “for CO2 reductions up to 10-20%, air pollution and other benefits more than offset the costs of action.”

Reducing agricultural GHG emissions also could have health and local environmental benefits. “For example, in China, nitrous oxide emissions associated with overuse of fertiliser contributes to acid rain, severe eutrophication of the China Sea and damage to health through contamination of drinking water.”

In recommending the acceleration of low-carbon, high-efficiency technological innovation to tackle climate change, the report cited hydrogen for transport as an example. “Hydrogen could potentially offer complete diversification away from oil and provide very low-carbon transport,” it said, adding that “hydrogen would be best suited to road vehicles”. Indeed, Stern noted, China plans to use hydrogen buses at the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing.

On the topic of innovation, the report also noted a down-side: Some markets, such as the highly energy-intensive cement industry in China and other developing countries, are made up of small, local businesses “which are less likely to undertake research [in energy efficiency] since their resources and potential rewards are smaller”. Still, the report makes clear, “Policies to support deployment [of new technologies] exist throughout the world %26hellip; China and India have both encouraged large-scale renewable deployment in recent years and now have respectively the largest and fifth-largest renewable energy capacity worldwide.”

Moving beyond carbon markets and technology, Stern notes that the planned eco-city of Dongtan, on Chongming island near Shanghai, “provides an important example of the potential for sustainable urban development across the rapidly urbanising transition and developing economies of the world”. The 86-square-kilometre community will feature highly energy-efficient buildings employing renewable energy sources as well as passive energy systems; recycling and composting of waste also are a factor.

Says the report: “Chinese policy-makers and planners have been impressive in scaling up best practice to help achieve their objective to reduce the ratio of energy demand to output by 20% over 5 years. In the case of Dongtan, a high-speed rail link to Shanghai is planned, while the city itself is being designed in a compact, inter-linked way, supported by mixed patterns of land use, and a network of pedestrian and cycle routes, in order to reduce the demand for private motorised transport (and associated infrastructure costs).”

Stern also cited China`s rapid expansion of appliance standards in the 1990s to include refrigerators, lamps, air conditioners and other items. “By 2010,” the report said, “energy savings are estimated to reach 33.5 TWh [terawatt hours, or one trillion watts], or about 9% of China`s residential electricity. This is equivalent to a CO2 emission reduction of 11.3 Mt [metric tons] CO2. A more recent study highlighted the potential for significant energy savings in the longer term from more stringent performance standards on three major residential end-uses: household refrigeration, air-conditioning and water heating.” China is also considering adoption of the International Energy Agency`s “1 Watt Initiative,” to reduce energy waste from appliances on standby power.

Much of what governments do in adapting to climate change “is what they should be doing anyway – that is, implementing good development practice,” the report says. Such adaptation is key to reducing developing countries` vulnerability and increasing their capacity to adapt. Rapid growth, as in China and India, Stern asserts, “will equip these countries with the economic resources to invest in appropriate policies and tools to better manage the effects of climate change.”

To that, Stern added a significant point: “In some circumstances, there may be additional costs, which the international community will have a role in helping to finance, bearing in mind the differences in income and historical responsibility for the bulk of past emissions.”

Improving disaster preparedness and management not only save lives, the report said, but also “promotes early and cost-effective adaptation to climate-change risks”. For example, China`s $3.15 billion spending on flood control from 1960 to 2000 is estimated to have averted some $12 billion in losses.

China is among the nations and regions that have adopted strong mandatory initiatives to reduce GHG emissions. Additionally, the country is involved in dialogue with other large energy consumers on international collective action through a number of forums, including the Gleneagles Dialogue and the Asia-Pacific Partnership. At home, Stern notes, China has adopted goals on climate change and clean energy. The country`s 11th Five Year Plan contains such objectives as a 20% reduction in energy intensity of GDP from 2005 to 2010; a 10% reduction in emission of air pollutants; and sourcing 15% of its energy from renewables within the next decade. At the same time, China plans to double its economic growth. A wide range of incentives support these policies, including using sales taxes to encourage purchase of cars with smaller engines. China also applies a lower rate of value-added tax to renewable energy technologies, and has adopted EU standards for vehicle exhaust emissions.

Stern also cited China`s growing role in promoting international technology cooperation, which “enables the sharing of risks, rewards and progress %26hellip; and enables co-ordination of priorities”. A number of Chinese companies, for example, export solar water heaters to other developing countries. Other international cooperation is reflected in agreements such as the Near-Zero Emissions Coal initiative, announced as part of the EU-China Partnership on Climate Change in 2005. That joint initiative — to develop a near-zero emissions coal plant in China — is expected to lead to the construction of a carbon capture and storage project.

Other collective international actions, the report says, can centre on land use, particularly regarding forests. “Rigorous enforcement of forest protection in one country without action to reduce demand for timber can displace logging to neighbouring countries,” Stern says. “Following floods associated with deforestation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, China banned the logging of natural forest in 1998 and has greatly increased its own forest cover. However, timber imports from the Russian Far East, southeast Asia and Africa have risen strongly since the ban has been enforced.”

China led the world in the largest annual net gain in forest area in 2000-2005, according to UN Food and Agriculture Organisation statistics. The country added forests, in area terms, at a rate equal to nearly half of global deforestation over the past five years.

Maryann Bird is a London-based journalist with a special interest in environmental and human-rights issues. A writer and editor, she was previously a staff member at Time magazine (Europe), The Independent, the International Herald Tribune and The New York Times.

Homepage photo by Ari Bronstein

The job of the Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, released in London on 30 October 2006, was to assess the economics of moving to a low-carbon global economy, the potential of different adaptation approaches and the specific lessons for the UK. Although it was commissioned by the British government – back in July 2005 – Nicholas Stern`s report takes a necessary international perspective. Indeed, the former chief economist for the World Bank and members of his team visited numerous countries and institutions in the course of their inquiry.

One of their stops was China, the emerging global giant which could hardly have been overlooked in such a study. (A short version of the review`s executive summary has already been published in Chinese.) China was cited among the countries and regions already taking action and which have “the most ambitious policies that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions”. But more ambitious action is now required, globally.

In its executive summary, the review stated that, on current trends, average global temperatures will rise by 2 to 3%26ordm; C within the next 50 years or so. If greenhouse-gas emissions continue to grow, this global warming will have many severe impacts. “Melting glaciers will initially increase flood risk,” the report said, “and then strongly reduce water supplies, eventually threatening one-sixth of the world`s population, predominantly in the Indian sub-continent, parts of China and the Andes in South America.” One-sixth of the global population, today, is over one billion people.

Discussing — in a section on the impacts of climate change on growth and development — how climate change will affect people around the world, the document warned: “Climate change will have serious consequences for people who depend heavily on glacier meltwater to maintain supplies during the dry season.” That would affect some 250 million people in China, given that 23% of the country`s population “lives in the western region that depends principally on glacier meltwater. Virtually all glaciers are showing substantial melting in China, where spring stream-flows have advanced by nearly one month since records began.”

“Initially, water flows may increase in the spring as the glacier melts more rapidly. This may increase the risk of damaging glacial lake outburst floods, especially in the Himalayas, and also lead to shortages later in the year. In the long run, dry-season water will disappear permanently once the glacier has completely melted.” Glacial lake outburst floods are described as catastrophic discharges of large volumes of water following the breach of the natural dams that contain glacial lakes – and China`s neighbour Nepal is considered particularly vulnerable.

On the key issue of food, the report stated that production will be particularly sensitive to climate change; in large part, crop yields depend on prevailing climate conditions – temperature and rainfall. In tropical regions, Stern says, “even small amounts of warming will lead to declines in yield. In higher latitudes, crop yields may increase initially for moderate increases in temperature, but then fall. Higher temperatures will lead to substantial declines in cereal production around the world.” In some parts of China, “low levels of warming in mid to high latitudes may improve the conditions for crop growth by extending the growing season and/or opening up new areas for agriculture. Further warming will have increasingly negative impacts %26hellip; as damaging temperature thresholds are reached more often and water shortages limit growth.”

The economic and social consequences may well prove catastrophic: agriculture takes up 40% of the planet`s land area, accounts for 24% of world economic output, and employs 22% of the global population. And Stern adds, 75% of the poorest people in the world rely on agriculture for their livelihood.

Additionally, sea-level rise as a result of global warming will “increase coastal flooding, raise costs of coastal protection, lead to loss of wetlands and coastal erosion, and increase saltwater intrusion into surface and groundwater.” Rising sea levels, which began in the last century, will “increase the amount of land lost and people displaced due to permanent inundation”. Coastal areas are not only densely populated – 200 million people reside in coastal floodplains worldwide — but they also support important ecosystems on which local communities depend. And they often also are home to critical infrastructure projects, including oil refineries, nuclear power stations and port and industrial facilities.

Many of the world`s major cities, including Shanghai, are at risk of flooding from coastal surges. In addition to these coastal areas` populations, some two million square kilometres of land and $1 trillion in assets exist less than one metre above current sea level. Those most vulnerable live in south and east Asia, along the African coast and on small islands. Estimates of the number of global environmental refugees by 2050 extend as high as 200 million.

Development – and poverty reduction – is threatened by climate change. Climate models predict a range of (chiefly) negative impacts on developing countries, from a decline in agricultural output and food security to a loss of vital river flows. While climatic patterns vary significantly across a country as large as China, its average surface air temperature has risen by between 0.5 and 0.8%26ordm; C over the 20th century; the increases have been more noted in northern China and the Tibetan plateau than in the south.

“Temperature rise will lead to temperate zones in China moving north,” the review states, “as well as an extension of arid regions. Cities such as Shanghai are expected to experience an increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves causing significant discomfort to fast-growing urban populations.”

In addition to existing water shortages in China, water scarcity is expected to grow more critical, particularly in such northern provinces as Ningxia, Gansu, Shanxi and Jilin – exacerbated by economic and population growth. In the next 50 to 100 years, though, an increase in average rainfall in southern provinces – including Fujian, Zhejiang and Jiangxi – is expected to lead to more flooding, which will bite into the country`s GDP. Agricultural output and productivity across different regions will vary as a result of climate change, depending on water availability. Overall, a net decrease is anticipated in seven northern and north-western provinces deemed particularly vulnerable (accounting for roughly 25% of total arable land and 14% of China`s total agricultural output by value).

Projecting the growth of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions linked to climate change, the report says that most future rise will come from today`s developing countries and their energy-intensive industries. By 2030, China alone is expected to account for more than one third of the increase. The generation of power and heat (used mostly by domestic and commercial buildings and by industry) has been the fastest-growing source of emissions worldwide, growing by 2.2% per year between 1990 and 2002. By the end of this decade, China`s emissions are likely to overtake those of the United States, driven partly by its heavy use of coal.

Additionally, says the report: “Population growth rates will be higher among the developing countries, which are also likely in aggregate to have more rapid emissions growth per head. This means that emissions in the developing world will grow significantly faster than in the developed world, requiring a still sharper focus on emissions abatement in the larger economies like China, India and Brazil.”

Stern found that, in the case of climate change, some types of pollution which usually decline with rising income levels do not occur. “At a global level, there has been little evidence of large voluntary reductions in emissions as a result of consumers` desire to reduce emissions as they become richer” – although “this may change as people`s understanding of climate-change risks improves.” Furthermore, with the relocation of manufacturing to developing countries, the shift within richer nations has less impact on total emissions. And, as incomes rise, the demand for air and car transport as well as some other carbon-intensive goods and services will keep growing.

Globally, says the report, “in the absence of policy interventions, the long-run positive relationship between income growth and emissions per head is likely to persist. Breaking the link requires significant changes in preferences, relative prices of carbon-intensive goods and services and/or breaks in technological trends.” Stern sees such change as possible “with appropriate policies”. Without them, though, “incremental improvements in efficiency alone will not overwhelm the income effect. For example, a review of projections for China carried out for the Stern Review suggests that energy demand is very like to increase substantially in %26lsquo;business as usual` scenarios, despite major reductions in energy intensity.”

Stern also determined that increasing the levels of carbon finance — the resources provided to purchase GHG emission reductions – for developing countries, to support effective GHG-cutting policies and programmes, would speed up the transition to a low-carbon economy. The review noted that developing countries already are “taking significant action to decouple their economic growth” from GHG growth. For example, “China has adopted very ambitious domestic goals to reduce energy used for each unit of GDP by 20% from 2006-2010 and to promote the use of renewable energy.”

NEXT: What about “dirty” coal?

For all those desirous to see greater flow of foreign direct investments into Africa, the year 2006 opened on a very optimistic note. China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced an investment of US$2.3 billion in Nigeria, the continent`s most populous nation. The deal, China`s biggest investment foray into Africa, gives the corporation a 45% stake in an off-shore oil field. China now has partial control over a Nigerian oil field that has the capacity to produce as much as 180,000 barrels per day.

China`s investment in that African country is just one out of many of such moves into the continent in last few years, one driven – among other things – by the increasing conflicts and uncertainties in Iraq and other parts of the middle east. Angola, another of Africa`s major oil producers, has now overtaken Saudi Arabia as China`s biggest single provider of oil.

Zambia, South Africa, Gabon, Cameroun and the Democratic Republic of Congo are some other African countries that have witnessed surging Chinese economic interest. From South Africa, China seeks iron ore and platinum. From DR Congoand Zambia, it seeks copper and cobalt; and from Cameroun and Congo Brazzaville, it seeks timber. All of these are raw materials that China needs to drive its ever growing industrial sector. And the results are already beginning to show. From a US$3 billion mark in 1995, trade between China and Africa last year stood at US$32 billion. Projections are that the figures will hit US$50 billion by the end of this year and will triple by 2015, the UN`s target year to halve poverty worldwide.

The “new scramble for Africa”, as some have christened China`s romance with the continent, has been more dramatic in some countries than others. Despite its lingering political crisis, which has attracted international attention and calls for sanctions, Sudan`s exports to China have soared from 10% in 1995 to 70% of its total exports as of 2005. Beijing also said earlier this year that it will plough US$35 million into the construction of west Africa`s biggest theatre in Senegal, its first major foray into the continent`s entertainment industry.

But China`s growing interest in Africa, which has attracted criticisms from other global players such as the US, has been most profound in the continent`s oil-producing states. China has promised to commit US$4 billion to building refineries and power plants in Nigeria. Similar largesse is in the offing for Angola, where China has also promised to raise another US$4 billion to help the reconstruction of roads and other infrastructure.

Does the “new scramble” share any resemblance with that of the 17th and 18th century, which saw the massive shipment of African youths to Europe and America? I don`t think so. Western imperialism had no “business” colouration at all. It was simply a rape predicated on ignorance for which some Africans still seek reparation. But today`s oil deals are business: legitimate business consciously entered into by the parties involved, and from which all parties can benefit. For Nigeria, the principal challenge is how to ensure that a greater majority of its 130 million population benefits from the huge inflow of petrodollars.

Experience from the past has not been particularly heart-warming. Half a century of oil exploration in the Niger Delta has left the people of the region poorer than they were before the discovery of oil in their neighborhood. Even more worrisome is the ecological damage that the reckless acts of oil spillage and gas flaring have caused in the region.

Goodluck Diigbo, an activist from Ogoni, an oil-producing community in the Niger Delta, believes that oil has done his community more harm than good. “All you see in Ogoni is agony,” he told me in New York last month. He has been living in New York since 1995, when the military regime of Sani Abacha made attempts on his life. Diigbo was a close ally of Ken Saro Wiwa, leader of the Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People (MOSOP), who was killed by Abacha`s government 11 years ago.

A high level of resentment exists in the Niger Delta against all individuals and institutions that people perceive as instrumental to the ecological disaster they currently face. Another Niger Deltan, whom I spoke with during a visit to the region in March, was as rhetorical as Diigbo. “The presence of Shell in Niger Delta has made the place nothing but hell for its people,” he said. I felt a little bit of the hell when I toured some gas flaring sites in the region.

photo by Karlsruhe

Nigeria currently flares 75% of its daily gas production. Experts say that in Nigeria, an average of around 1000 standard cubic feet of gas is produced for every barrel of oil. With a production rate of about 2.2 million barrels per day, that equals 2.2 billion cubic feet of gas wasted daily. By all assessments, this is a monumental waste and a significant contribution to global greenhouse-gas emissions. According to a World Bank 2002 report, “the most striking example of environmental neglect [in Africa] has been in the oil sector, where natural gas flaring has contributed more emissions of greenhouse gases than all other sources in sub-Saharan Africa combined.”

Gas flares release a cocktail of toxic substances into the atmosphere, including the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). Scientists say methane has higher global-warming potential than carbon dioxide. Assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that after 20 years, 1 kg of methane is 62 times more potent than 1kg of carbon dioxide.

What do these facts mean for the latest bride of Nigeria`s oil sector? For one, it calls to attention the need to be an environmentally-friendly operator right from the very beginning. Shell began operations in the Niger Delta at a time when the country was still under colonial rule. Many people in the region believe that the company has yet to shed that colonial attitude, decades after Nigeria became an independent state.

CNOOC cannot afford to carry out its operation with the same arrogance that Shell has exhibited in the region over the years. To do so will be very counter-productive. The desire of every investor is gain, not pain. And real gain is that which benefits all the stakeholders in the deal. No matter who signs the contract papers authorising its operations in Nigeria, CNOOC must see its immediate host community as stakeholders in its operations.

Last year`s series of hurricanes in the United States and Latin America, which some scientists blame on global warming, show that the consequences of oil companies` reckless environmental activities are no longer just a problem for the communities directly impacted by acts of environment recklessness. There are many consequences that are faced by all. Evidence linking global warming and hurricane intensity might still appear fuzzy, but it is a potential danger worth taking very seriously.

Neglecting these responsibilities would ultimately be self-defeating. Prosperity built on the despoilment of the natural environment is no prosperity at all. It is only a reprieve from future disaster. The issue is not environment versus development or ecology versus economy; the two can and should be integrated. This is a challenge that CNOOC must show a strong commitment to meeting.

Godwin Nnanna is Assistant Editor at Business Day Nigeria and winner of the Kalaam Award for Consumer Journalism 2005.