Chinese walker

China is poised to present the world with some of its greatest opportunities – as well as some of its greatest challenges – in the years ahead. The planet`s most populous country is now home to 1.3 billion people. It is also home to a rapidly developing economy that is fast becoming a major global player. The spectacular rise of China has lifted millions out of poverty. It has also alarmed many of its neighbours and competitors and prompted the question, “Is China a threat or an opportunity?” Its rapid development has come at a heavy environmental cost.

The Chinese government acknowledges China`s environmental crisis. In a 2005 interview, Pan Yue, vice minister of the State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA), the government agency with responsibility for the environment, said: “This [economic] miracle will end soon because the environment can no longer keep pace%26hellip;Acid rain is falling on one-third of our territory, half of the water in China`s seven largest rivers is completely useless; a quarter of our citizens do not have access to clean drinking water; a third of the urban population is breathing polluted air; less than a fifth of the rubbish in cities is treated and processed in an environmentally sustainable manner.”

China`s need for energy and water to feed continuing urbanisation and industrialisation will only exacerbate this crisis if solutions are not found. However, the country`s environmental problems are of concern not only to China; they affect everybody in the world, directly and indirectly. As China expands its search for energy and minerals, timber and other raw materials across the world, the environmental impact becomes a global issue. According to the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute, China used 26% of the world`s crude steel in 2005, 32% of the rice, 37% of the cotton and 47% of the cement. While some of those materials are going into exported products, a good deal is going into building a Chinese infrastructure that is transforming the country`s landscape. And as China`s carbon emissions rise, the common problem of global climate change is affected.

Since the late 1970s, the country has moved from a centrally planned system to a more market-oriented one, with a burgeoning private sector. China`s economic restructuring, with its accompanying gains in efficiency, have led to a huge leap – more than tenfold — in gross domestic product (GDP) since 1978. Measured in purchasing power, then, China has become the second-largest economy in the world, after the United States. In per-capita terms, however, it is still lower middle-income, with large income disparities between regions and 150 million people falling below international poverty lines. The Chinese government has struggled to cope with both the consequences of past environmental policies and the challenges of the current economic transformation. With China`s growing national wealth, its rapid urbanisation and its economic weight in the world comes new responsibility regarding a tidal wave of environmental issues – issues of environmental protection, conservation of resources, power-generating capacity, fossil-fuel use and much more, which need to be urgently addressed.

Today, environmental issues are confronting every country in the world, large and small, powerful and weak. For China, with its huge population, colossal energy needs, growth in consumerism, expanding industrialisation and, soon, the 2008 Summer Olympic Games taking place in its capital, Beijing, the demands on its environment will be staggering. How will the country cope? And how will China work to ensure that it does no harm to places — and resources — outside its national borders?

Along with having the second-largest economy on the planet, China is the world`s second-largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO%26sup2;), one of the major greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. Although China has ratified both the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its 1997 Kyoto Protocol, as a developing country it is not legally bound to any emissions-limiting or emissions-reduction targets. Nor, notes the UN Environment Programme`s Global Environment Outlook 2006, have any targets been set under the 2005 Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, which encompasses China and two of its regional, developing neighbours – India and South Korea – along with the US, Japan and Australia. (India and Japan are the fourth and fifth largest CO%26sup2; emitters, with Russia in third place.) The partnership, however, aims to develop and utilise emerging cleaner technologies and practices, including renewable energy systems.

In 1990, according to UNEP figures, the Asia-Pacific region produced 435 million tonnes (8%) more CO%26sup2; than did North America. By 2002, the disparity was 2.6 million tonnes (41% more). Figures cited by the Worldwatch Institute show China emitting one billion tons of carbon dioxide annually, or 14% of the world total (still only one-seventh of the level of the US, the world`s largest emitter). Pressure on China to limit its greenhouse-gas emissions, post-Kyoto, is mounting, both internationally and internally. The Chinese government is well aware that China is vulnerable, on many fronts, to the effects of climate change: rising sea levels, violent weather fluctuations, desertification, loss of habitat and biodiversity, health issues, and more.

San Francisco-based Pacific Environment, one of the organisations supporting China`s emerging environmental movement, says that “China`s contribution to global warming will impact the environment of every nation on earth.” Indeed, it adds, the country`s management of its environmental problems will have significant global repercussions. “The inability of China`s farmers to eke out a crop from drying land will force it to turn to the world food market, further intensifying the stresses on land in grain-producing countries like the US and Canada. And China`s consumption of over a third of the global fish harvest, a number that is certain to grow, is placing severe strain on our already overtaxed oceans. Simply put, anyone concerned about the global environment must be concerned about the capacity of China`s people to deal with the pressing threats they face.”

Climate change will affect China, and China will affect climate change.

If a nation is to develop, particularly in this increasingly globalised world, it needs energy – energy to power its factories, supply its construction industries, light its buildings, heat and air-condition its homes and workplaces, run its transportation systems, and produce its food and clothing.

China, with its booming economy and increasing national wealth, is (like its neighbour India) not immune to the environmental consequences of its development, however. The doubling of its gross domestic product (GDP) since 1995 (from about US $500 billion in 1995 to $1.1 trillion in 2005) has produced a concomitant increase in carbon emissions, from roughly 800 million metric tons in 1995 to more than 1.2 billion metric tons in 2005. China has a great deal of growing to do yet, however, and 150 million Chinese people are still living in poverty – and using very little energy.

Biodiversity – or biological diversity – means the variety of life on earth, and is measured within species, between species and in the plenitude of ecosystems (the system of interactions between living organisms and their environment). In its biodiversity, China is one of the richest countries on earth. It is also one in which biodiversity has been most seriously damaged – and is still threatened.

With its huge population and long history of agriculture, China has been cultivating its vast territory for centuries. Forests and other types of vegetation were destroyed to clear land to cultivate more crops to feed more people. Wars and other chaos throughout China`s history have had their negative effects on the land and its life forms, and now climate change is playing a part. More recently, says China`s Biodiversity: A Country Study – labeled “a preliminary summary of China`s biodiversity and of the work needed for its preservation” — both the government and the public are more aware of the importance of biodiversity conservation. But threats to the country`s biodiversity legacy – one that is rich and varied, but also broken and incomplete — are still growing.

Forests, says the 1998 report — organised by China`s State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA) and compiled with the support of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) – have been “broken into small, fragmented areas”. Rangelands have been “overgrazed and severely degraded”. Animal and plant resources have been overexploited and overutilised. Atmospheric pollution, particularly in the form of acid rain, endangers plants, soil, lakes, fish and other resources. Invasive exotic weeds and animal pests have damaged indigenous life. Human activities, including tourism, mining and wetlands reclamation, produce a range of harmful effects.

As the report unequivocally states: “The survival of mankind cannot be separated from that of other species. Numerous plants, animals and micro-organisms provide indispensable human food, fiber, wood, medicine and industrial raw materials. %26hellip; The many beautiful and aesthetic life forms on the earth also give human beings much enjoyment. They are also sources of artistic creation and scientific invention. Most of the functions of living organisms cannot be replaced by other things. Today, man is modifying the features of the earth at an unprecedented rate. This creates raw materials for human survival on the one hand, but has changed the living environment of other living things, continuously decreasing biodiversity, and has led to the extinction of large numbers of species, on the other. The basis for human survival is gradually disintegrating and the protection of biodiversity is currently of worldwide concern.”

Experts, including the UNEP, consider China one of the earth`s 12 “mega-diverse” countries, ranking it third in the world for biodiversity in GEO-2000, the Global Environment Outlook, and first in the northern hemisphere. With more than 30,000 species of advanced plants and 6,347 kinds of vertebrates, representing 10 and 14 percent, respectively, of the world`s total (according to 1996 SEPA figures). Additionally, China is credited with 1,000 species of economic trees and more than 11,000 species of medicinal plants. Countless species are endemic to the country – ancient flora and fauna – and are both rare and endangered.

Washington-based Conservation International (CI), which works to protect the earth`s richest regions of plant and animal diversity, has identified 34 “biodiversity hotspots” globally. These are regions that contain at least 1,500 endemic species of vascular plants (greater than 0.5% of the world`s total) and which have lost at least 70% of their original habitat. Among the 34 hotspots on CI`s list are the mountains of southwest China, stretching over 262,400 square kilometers of temperate to alpine peaks between the easternmost edge of the Tibetan plateau and the central China plain. The mountains feed the most species-rich temperate and tropical river systems in Asia and “support a wide array of habitats, including the most endemic-rich temperate flora in the world.”

The region has evolved into “cluster of distinctive mini-hotspots,” each with its own unique flora and fauna, says CI, due to its dramatic differences in topography, climate and vegetation. The mountains are home to an estimated 12,000 species of plants, 237 of mammals, 611 of birds, and at least 90 each of reptiles, amphibians and freshwater fish – many of which are found nowhere else in the world. Two-hundred thirty rhododendron species – more than a quarter of the world`s total – are found there. So, too, is the richest variety of pheasants and their relatives – about 25 species – and, among mammals, there is the very symbol of China and of conservation: the giant panda. The animal, says CI, is “almost entirely restricted to the shrinking forests of this hotspot.” Other important mammals include the golden monkey, the Yunnan or black snub-nosed monkey, the takin (a large goat antelope), the Chinese forest musk deer and the snow leopard.

The World Conservation Union (also known as IUCN and based in Gland, Switzerland) is the world`s largest and most important conservation network. Among its functions is maintenance of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, a database recognised as the most authoritative guide to the status of biological diversity on the planet. It evaluates the extinction risk to thousands of species and subspecies. Its 2006 figures list 804 threatened species in China: 442 plants, 84 mammals, 88 birds, 34 reptiles, 91 amphibians, 59 fishes, 1 mollusc and 5 other invertebrates.

Deforestation – for agriculture, logging, dam construction, industry and human settlements – and climate change have played their part in the decline of China`s wildlife and habitats. So, too, has the destruction of grasslands and wetlands – such as the large freshwater swamps of the Sanjian plain in northeastern China. While habitats shrink, so too does the varied life of ecosystems.

And as Jared Diamond writes in his book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive, “Other biodiversity losses with big economic consequences include the severe degradation of both freshwater and coastal marine fisheries by overfishing and pollution, because fish consumption is rising with growing affluence. %26hellip; The white sturgeon has been pushed to brink of extinction, the formerly robust Bohai prawn harvest declined 90%, formerly abundant fish species like the yellow croaker and hairtail must now be imported, the annual take of wild fish in the Yangtze river has declined 75%, and that river had to be closed to fishing for the first time ever in 2003.”

As China pursues its aspirations to a “First World lifestyle,” the impact on human-resource use and the environment is certain to be immense.

Since China embarked on structural reforms two decades ago, its economy has boomed to become the second-largest in the world, averaging a 9.5% rate of growth and doubling in the last decade alone. By leaps and bounds, China is growing wealthier, and the evidence of that progress can be seen in everything from new construction, energy demand and more cars on the roads to greater travel and availability of the latest consumer gadgets.

While countries around the world are benefiting from low-cost Chinese manufacturing, China is also providing – through both production and imports — a new world of consumer goods and services for its own people, who increasingly have the money with which to acquire them. The growing culture of consumption and consumerism in traditionally frugal China has serious environmental impacts, however.

The Worldwatch Institute`s State of the World 2004 report, which focused on consumerism, noted that while Americans and western Europeans “have had a lock on unsustainable overconsumption for decades %26hellip;developing countries are catching up rapidly, to the detriment of the environment, health and happiness.” According to the report: “One quarter of humanity%26mdash;1.7 billion people worldwide%26mdash;now belong to the %26lsquo;global consumer class,` having adopting the diets, transportation systems and lifestyles that were once mostly limited to the rich nations of Europe, North America and Japan.” While China and other developing countries are home to growing numbers of such consumers (particularly in large urban centres), however, disparities remain “as 2.8 billion people on the planet struggle to survive on less than $2 a day, and more than one billion people lack reasonable access to safe drinking water.”

To survive, people must consume, acknowledges Worldwatch, “and the world`s poorest will need to increase their level of consumption if they are to lead lives of dignity and opportunity. But the world cannot continue on its current trajectory%26mdash;the earth`s natural systems simply cannot support it. The economies of mass consumption that produced a world of abundance for many in the 20th century face an entirely different challenge in the 21st: to focus not on the indefinite accumulation of goods, but instead on a better quality of life for all, with minimal environmental harm.”

As China adds the weight of its consumer consumption to the global economy, Worldwatch`s more recent State of the World 2006 addresses a critical question: “Can the world`s ecosystems withstand the damage – the increase in carbon emissions, the loss of forests, the extinction of species – that are now in prospect? The answer is no, according to the 2005 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.” The millennium assessment on ecosystems and human well-being — a United Nations report released by the World Health Organisation — determined that human activities in the last 50 years have changed the diversity of life on earth more than at any other time in history, and that such activities, if continued, will have life-threatening consequences.

China`s demands can be measured in many ways, in snapshots of its growing consumption as it strives toward a “first-world” lifestyle. With lighting, air conditioning, computers and other office equipment, “China`s nearly seven million public servants reportedly use almost 5% of the country`s annual electricity, which is enough to meet the demands of 780 million farmers,” the newspaper China Daily reports.

In a globalised world, goods and services previously out of reach in developing countries – things once considered to be luxuries – are now seen as necessities by many: televisions, mobile telephones and other electronic gadgetry, cars and airline travel. Internationally known brands of clothing and other products abound in China`s biggest cities (particularly Beijing and Shanghai), along with an increasing number of western restaurant and coffee-shop franchises. Consumerism has been termed the new “ism” in China, linking happiness to material goods and helping to drive the economy.

Hand in hand with consumerism is consumption, which in some cases means the using up of a resource. China`s goal of achieving a first-world lifestyle for its people will double the world`s human-resource use. According to author Jared Diamond in his 2005 book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive, China is the world`s leading producer and consumer of both coal and fertilizer, the second-largest producer and consumer of pesticides, the largest producer of steel, the second-largest producer of electricity and chemical textiles, and the third-largest consumer of oil. China`s auto production is now third in the world, behind the United States and Japan, adding to both energy use, air pollution and demand for oil.

China also ranks third in the world in timber consumption – wood for rural energy (firewood), for the paper and pulp industry and for the booming construction industry. (Diamond reports that “the projected decrease in Chinese household size to 2.7 people by the year 2015 will add 126 million new households — more than the total number of US households — even if China`s population size itself remains constant”.) Due to massive deforestation, followed (after severe floods in 1996 and 1998) by a ban on logging of its natural forests, China is on course to overtake Japan and become the world`s largest importer of tropical timber. Since the ban, writes Diamond, China`s wood imports have increased sixfold. Deforestation, he says, is being exported.

While the country`s demands for timber put massive pressure on the planet`s forestry resources, environmental campaigners say China is not alone in doing little or nothing to control the burgeoning trade in illegal wood imports. The conservation group WWF, in a 2005 report entitled China`s Wood Market, Trade and the Environment, says China is one of the major destinations for wood that may be illegally harvested or traded. More than half of China`s imported timber comes from countries such as Russia, Indonesia and Malaysia, all of which are struggling, says WWF, with over-harvesting, conversion of natural forests and illegal logging.

China`s increasing affluence has also produced more demand for meat and fish. In the northeast, freshwater swamps in the Sanjian plain have been converted to farmland. With a greater demand for meat comes a larger share of cereal production going toward animal feed. Per-capita fish consumption has increased five-fold in the past quarter-century, while China also exports fish, molluscs and other aquatic species. Chinese fishermen have cast their nets around the world – including in the lucrative waters off southwestern Africa in their (not always legal) search for fish. Overfishing occurs in China`s deep seas and along its coastline, and a growing movement – including Pacific Environment`s Save China`s Seas network – seeks to “help consumers focus on how their dietary choices affect our oceans` bounty”.

The water quality in rivers and groundwater sources is poor, due to industrial and municipal waste-water discharges, as well as agricultural and aquacultural runoff of fertilizers, pesticides and manure. All that nutrient runoff has produced excessive concentrations of algae, a process known as eutrophication. “About 75% of Chinese lakes, and almost all coastal seas, are polluted,” writes Jared Diamond. “Red tides in China`s seas%26mdash;blooms of plankton whose toxins are poisonous to fish and other ocean animals%26mdash;have increased to nearly 100 per year, from only one in every five years in the 1960s.”

As if the devastating toll on China`s resources by all this production and consumption activity were not enough, the country also imports untreated rubbish — including electronic equipment and toxic waste — from the rest of the world for disposal. As Diamond puts it: “This represents direct transfer of pollution from the first world to China.”

China — like the US, Europe, Japan and India – is exceeding its “ecological footprint”, a resource management tool devised by environmental analyst Mathis Wackernagel to estimate the amount of “ecological space” occupied by humanity. “Footprint analysis,” explains Worldwatch`s 2006 report, “measures what an economy needs from nature: the inputs that fuel it and the wastes that emerge from it.” To determine whether a country is living within its ecological means, its footprint is compared with its number of global hectares of biologically productive space. “Where a nation`s footprint is larger than its biocapacity, its economy is consuming more forests, cropland and other resources than the country can supply and is overtaking the domestic environment`s capacity to absorb wastes.”

“The world`s largest and most industrialised economies,” says Worldwatch, “are essentially consuming their ecological capital by cutting forests faster than they can regenerate, pumping groundwater faster than it is recharged, and filling the atmosphere with carbon that cannot be safely absorbed.” On a per-person basis, the inequality of claims on biocapacity is clear. The world average footprint is 2.3 global hectares per person. The average Chinese person`s is 1.6, the average European`s is 4.7, and the average American`s is 9.7.

As China (and India) continue to develop rapidly, the global footprint grows. Worldwatch says that “if by 2030 China and India alone were to achieve a per-capita footprint equivalent to that of Japan today, together they would require a full planet Earth to meet their needs.”

“China will, of course, not tolerate being told not to aspire to first world levels,” writes Diamond in Collapse. “But the world cannot sustain China and other third-world countries and current first-world countries all operating at first-world levels.”

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The Author: Maryann Bird is a London-based journalist

(photo by Shanghai Streets)