Chinese walker

The last two hundred years have seen many shocks for China. The world`s biggest economic power at the beginning of the 19th Century, with an economic aggregate at 33% of the world`s total, China quickly declined to only 5% by the mid 20th century. The decline was not arrested until 1950 and industrialisation and modernisation began from a very low economic level. From 1978, China`s economy began to take off, generating the biggest economic miracle in human history and achieving record breaking growth and poverty reduction. Today, China is already the world`s second largest power in terms of comprehensive national power and, according to PPP (purchasing power parity) calculation, is now second only to the United States and predicted by the OECD to overtake the US by 2030, thus becoming the world`s biggest economic power again (See Table 1). For China, national reinvigoration is no longer a dream. The rise of China is a living reality.

The rise of China has aroused great concern throughout the world. Most people in the world hold that China`s development will make a positive contribution. But some also claim that China`s growth is a threat. I think the rise of China will provide the world with opportunities rather than threats and that the whole world will benefit from China`s development. In fact, over the past 20 years, China has already made a tremendous contribution to global growth and poverty reduction. China`s future development will mean a greater contribution still. But the prerequisite is that China`s growth must be grounded in its true national conditions and follow the right development path. I think that China should rise both peacefully and along the path of green development. Only by sticking to a green development strategy and shifting the growth model to a green development path, is it possible for China to realise its historic rise. Table 1 Proportion of China`s GDP in the World`s Total

Source：Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, OECD: Paris, 2001

China`s resources, environment and the loss of natural assets

China abounds in natural resources. But on a per capita basis, it is a resource poor country. According to the World Bank`s 1997 evaluation, among the big countries whose data are available, China`s natural capital was next only to the United States and India. But on a per capita basis, it ranks at only 2670 US dollars, slightly higher than Japan (2300 dollars), 68% that of India, 64% that of Germany, 54% that of Britain, 33% that of France, 16% that of the United States, and 7% that of Australia. China`s agricultural land is 75% of its natural capital, second to India in total value; energy and mineral resources are 16% , with a total value next only to the United States. These two items together form the main part of China`s natural capital. But environmental natural resources are scarce. The value of forest resources, timber, pasture and protected zones in the United States is respectively, 2.7 times, 4.5 times, 5.4 times and 10.8 times that of China. (See Table 2)

China has big natural capital reserves but it is a small country on a per capita basis and the quality of its capital is poor. The contradiction between population and resources has always been significant in China`s productivity and economic development.

Table2 Natural Capital in Different Countries（1994）

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