Global Market Intelligence
he US dollar and the Japanese yen maintained a strong tone in the past fortnight as risk aversion flows continued to dominate trading in financial markets. Investor sentiment was hit by a slew of bad news, including weaker than expected reports and poor earnings at major global banks. In addition, the downgrades or potential downgrades to sovereign ratings of some of the euro zone and other economies, including Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and New Zealand due to their deteriorating fiscal conditions also hurt confidence.
With investors avoiding riskier assets, stocks and higher yielding currencies were sold off, while safe havens such as US Treasuries, the dollar and the yen were in demand. The dollar rose 7.2% against the New Zealand dollar and 5.6% versus the Australian dollar. It also gained nearly 5% against the euro.
Market will now shift focus to Washington as Barack Obama will be sworn in as the 44th President of the US on January 20. Will a new President save the US economy and restore banking stability? Although many plans are in the pipeline and will be launched as soon as Obama takes office, including a new round of fiscal stimulus, in the form of tax cuts and government spending, and financial stimulus, perhaps in the form of a bad bank to take over bad assets of banks, it will take time for these measures to take effect. In the mean time, bank and corporate earnings will continue to disappoint and economic conditions will deteriorate. Despite government efforts, the US unemployment rate could surge past 9%, from 7.2% at present. All these will bode badly for riskier assets and provide more room for the US dollar to score further gains against other majors in the first quarter of this year.
Interest Rates
The race to zero rates is still on. After the Fed cut rates to a range of zero to 0.25% and the Bank of Japan to 0.1%, other central banks are not far behind. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank reduced rates by 50bps in the past two weeks as their economies fell into deeper recession. Rates in the UK stand at 1.5% and that in the euro zone at 2%. Both central banks signaled that more rate cuts could be expected if the downturn accelerates. The decline in inflation as a result of falling oil and commodity prices also give monetary authorities more leeway for further policy easing.
With US rates near zero, the Fed is resorting to unconventional monetary policy to revive lending. It is using its balance sheet to purchase commercial paper and mortgage backed securities. Starting in February, the Fed will provide three-year term loans to investors against consumer and small business loans. If credit conditions do not improve, the Fed might consider purchasing longer term securities as a means to push down longer term interest rates.
As a matter of fact, the Fed’s action has already helped ease stress in money markets, as evidenced by a narrowing spread, from over 450 bps in October 2008 to around 100 bps in mid-January 2009, between interbank interest rates and Treasury Bill rates. Mortgage rates have also come down after its announced plan of purchasing mortgage backed securities in government sponsored enterprises. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped below 5% in mid-January 2009, from about 6.5% in the last week of October, 2008.
The Fed is determined to revive growth and there is no limit to how far it Fed could expand its balance sheet. But the Fed’s action will of course has long term consequences, including escalating money supply growth and inflation, if not handled carefully and promptly.
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